This report, written by ARO’s Sustainability Director Joseph Letras, provides a strategic overview of recent developments in climate trends, energy pricing, and regulatory updates.

October marked a period of relative stability in the UK and European energy markets, a welcome pause after months of volatility earlier in the year. As autumn transitioned into winter, the balance between strong renewable generation, robust gas storage levels, and steady supply conditions helped to anchor prices and maintain confidence across the sector.

This report summarises the key movements and trends observed throughout October 2025, highlighting how weather patterns, storage dynamics, and supply fundamentals shaped both gas and power markets. It also reflects on what these developments might mean as we head into the crucial winter season, a time when resilience, flexibility, and sustainability are more important than ever.

Gas Market

  • Prices: UK wholesale gas (NBP) traded mostly between 78–83 pence per therm, while European benchmark gas (TTF) hovered around £31/MWh by the end of the month.
  • Supply: Supply conditions were steady, supported by the early completion of Norwegian maintenance, which restored normal flow rates into the UK and Europe.
  • LNG: Regular LNG shipments continued throughout the month, with Qatar Energy beginning to utilise its new capacity at Grain LNG, further strengthening the UK’s import flexibility.
  • Storage: European gas storage remained around 83% full — below last year’s record levels but still comfortably above the seasonal average.

As we can see below, the gas market remained calm, well-supplied, and largely uneventful a reassuring signal as the heating season begins.

a gas report chart from January to October

Power Market

  • Prices: UK wholesale electricity prices averaged in the low £70s per MWh, though daily fluctuations were frequent and sometimes extreme.
  • Wind impact: Several windy periods notably during Storm Amy in mid-October drove significant renewable output and even led to negative prices during certain hours.
  • When the wind dropped: Gas-fired generation stepped in to stabilise the system, reaffirming the close link between weather conditions and short-term price movements.

Power prices were more volatile than gas, but overall affordability benefited from strong renewable generation and mild temperatures.

power chart from January to October

European Gas Storage

Storage facilities across Europe remained approximately 83% full at the end of October. This provided a comfortable supply cushion heading into winter and contributed to overall price stability.

What It All Means

  • Gas: Stable supply and high storage continued to cap price pressures.
  • Power: Abundant wind generation supported lower prices but added volatility.
  • Outlook: With inventories high and no major disruptions on the horizon, markets anticipate moderate prices through early winter, with only brief spikes likely if cold weather or calm conditions limit renewables.

Joseph Letras, Sustainability Director at ARO concluded:

“October’s calm markets give us reason for cautious optimism. High storage levels and resilient renewable output are helping to balance the system and keep costs manageable for consumers and businesses alike. As we move into the winter months, our focus remains on maintaining supply security while driving the transition toward cleaner, more sustainable energy.”

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