November brought big changes to the UK energy market. Gas and power prices dropped to their lowest levels in a year, thanks to mild weather, strong renewable generation, and easing geopolitical tensions. Global climate talks at COP30 in Brazil and the UK Autumn Budget added another layer of complexity, signaling long-term shifts in policy and affordability.

In this update, ARO’s Sustainability Director, Joseph Letras, breaks down what happened, and what it means for the months ahead.

Gas Prices: A Significant Drop

Natural gas prices fell by around 10% in November, closing at 71p/term, the lowest point in the past 12 months. What drove this decline?

  • Mild weather reduced heating demand.
  • Strong supply from Norwegian pipelines and LNG shipments.
  • Geopolitical optimism with peace talks easing market tension.

Power Prices: Near Yearly Lows

Wholesale power prices started the month at £76/MWh, briefly spiked to £78/MWh, then softened as warmer forecasts emerged. November closed at £72/MWh, almost matching the year’s low of £71/MWh in March. Key drivers:

  • High wind output boosted renewable generation.
  • Mild weather forecasts reduced demand.
  • Global stability signals supported price declines.

Looking Ahead: Winter Outlook

The biggest winter price driver? Weather forecasts. Current predictions suggest a mild Winter 2025, which could keep prices trending downward. With ample Norwegian gas and scheduled LNG deliveries, the outlook remains positive for consumers and businesses.

Policy Shifts: What You Need to Know

  • COP30 Outcomes: A voluntary roadmap to curb fossil fuels, triple adaptation finance, and protect forests, though no binding phase-out yet.
  • UK Autumn Budget: From 2026, most green levies (RO & ECO) will move from bills to general taxation, cutting household bills by £145-£150/year.
  • North Sea Strategy: Transitional energy certificates introduced; windfall tax extended to 2030.

Key Takeaways

  • Gas and power prices hit 12-month lows in November.
  • Mild weather and strong renewables drove the decline.
  • Policy changes aim to balance affordability and sustainability.
  • Outlook for early 2026: continued price softness if mild conditions persist.

“November’s market trends highlight how interconnected sustainability, policy, and global stability have become. Falling prices, driven by mild weather and strong renewable output, show the benefits of a diversified energy mix. With COP30 and the UK budget reinforcing long-term climate and affordability goals, we’re moving toward an energy system that is not only cost-effective but aligned with a low-carbon future.”
— Joseph Letras, Sustainability Director, ARO

Supporting Businesses Through Market Change

As energy markets evolve, we remain the trusted partner for organisations navigating cost pressures, sustainability goals, and risk management challenges. Our team of energy specialists provides:

Whether you’re looking to optimise your energy spend, strengthen your resilience, or accelerate your sustainability journey, we are here to help you.

Save money on your bills with a free Energy Audit.